A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
